What withdrawal rate should I use?

4% is a common starting point from historical US portfolio studies, not a guarantee. Sequence of returns, fees, and spending flexibility all change the outcome.

FIRE Calculator

Calculate your Financial Independence number and see how long until you can retire early.

Model year: 2026. Assumptions updated: Sep 24, 2026. Source: User assumption. 3% / 5% / 7% real are labeled scenarios, not an expected return.. Calculation version: v1.2.

Your Finances

Annual Income*

Annual Expenses*

Current Savings*

Real return assumption*

Safe Withdrawal Rate*

FIRE Number

$1,000,000

Years to FIRE

16.0 yrs

Savings Rate

50.0%

Monthly Savings

$3,333

Gap to FIRE

$950,000

Savings Growth vs FIRE Number

Portfolio Balance FIRE Number

Financial Independence in the AI Era

What FIRE Really Means Today

FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is about building enough invested assets that your safe withdrawal rate covers your lifestyle — giving you the option to stop trading time for money. In tech and AI, this often means reaching independence in your 30s or early 40s rather than traditional retirement age.

Why FIRE Is Especially Relevant Now

AI is accelerating productivity and potentially displacing jobs at scale. High earners in tech have a unique window to compound aggressively while compensation is elevated, then gain optionality as the economy transforms.

Types of FIRE (Choose Your Flavor)

Lean FIRE — Minimalist lifestyle ($25k–40k/year). Smaller portfolio required.

Fat FIRE — Comfortable or luxurious spending ($100k+). Much larger portfolio needed.

Coast FIRE — Save aggressively now, then let compounding finish the job while you work less intensely.

Barista FIRE — Semi-retire into low-stress work that covers expenses while your portfolio grows.

The Math That Actually Matters

Your savings rate is far more important than your absolute income. The calculator starts on the moderate 5% real scenario. Conservative is 3% and aggressive is 7%. None of those is a forecast. These year counts use this calculator at the aggressive 7% scenario, with nothing saved yet, a $100,000 income, and a 4% withdrawal rate:

10% savings rate → 42 years to FIRE
50% savings rate → 15 years to FIRE
70% savings rate → 9 years to FIRE

This is why many high-earning tech workers reach independence surprisingly quickly.

How This Calculator Works

This calculator models year-over-year growth by compounding your current savings at the real-return assumption you selected while adding your annual contributions until the portfolio reaches your FIRE number. It is a simplified model — real-world results will vary based on market volatility, inflation, taxes, and changes in spending.

Assumptions and disclaimer

Calculator outputs are educational estimates, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Results depend on the inputs and assumptions shown on the page and may exclude fees, state rules, market volatility, liquidity, or timing effects. Verify figures with current sources and consult a qualified professional before making decisions.

How to use it

1Enter income and spendingThe gap between them is what you can invest each year.
2Set a withdrawal rateThe independence number is annual spending divided by that rate.
3Read the year countThe chart grows today’s savings plus the annual gap until it crosses that number.

Questions people ask

What withdrawal rate should I use?: 4% is a common starting point from historical US portfolio studies, not a guarantee. Sequence of returns, fees, and spending flexibility all change the outcome.